Evaluating the Ability of Caprini and Padua Scores to Predict Venous Thromboembolism in a Nationwide Study

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a preventable complication of hospitalization. VTE risk-assessment models (RAMs) including the Caprini and Padua RAMs quantify risk based on demographic clinical characteristics. Both have performed well in selected high-risk cohorts with relatively small sample sizes but few studies evaluated large, unselected cohorts. We assessed ability both to predict nationwide, diverse cohort surgical nonsurgical patients. analyzed consecutive first hospital admissions 1,252,460 unique patients 1283 VA facilities nationwide between January 2016 December 2021. scores were calculated using data from Informatics Computing Infrastructure, electronic medical record repository entire system. two within 30, 60, 90 days after admission. then compared predictive by comparing areas under their respective receiver operating characteristic curves. hospitalized patients; 26.6% (n = 333,286) where 73.4% 948,728) nonsurgical. ranged 0 28 (median, 4; interquartile range, 3-6); 13 1; 1-3); higher associated rates. 35,557 developed admission (2.88%) (Table). The was low (area curve, 0.56 0.59, respectively). similar marginally better (Caprini curve: 0.59 vs 0.54; P .001; 0.60 0.56; .001) (Figure). In largest validation study date, increasing RAM are at or an population predicting populations. Studies needed improve existing before they can be applied general population.TableDistribution events 2021Time admission, daysVTE typeTotal eventsPE onlyPE DVTDVT only0-308092314414,37225,6080-609801376417,99231,5570-9010,940411620,50135,557DVT, Deep vein thrombosis; PE, pulmonary embolism; VTE, venous thromboembolism. Open table new tab